Voter Support for a Sales Tax Measure in Martinez Interviews conducted June 5-11, 2018

220-5132

Survey Methodology 501 telephone and online interviews with voters in Martinez likely to cast a ballot in November 2018 Interviews conducted June 5-11, 2018 Interviews online, on landlines and cell phones Margin of sampling error of ±4.9% at the 95% confidence level Some percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding 11

Survey Approach The survey sample was split into two demographically comparable groups, with differing survey structures: Group 1:

Contextual Questions

General Purpose Measure

Special Purpose (Police) Measure

Additional Information

General Purpose Measure Re-Asks

Additional Information

Special Purpose (Police) Measure Re-Asks

Group 2:

Contextual Questions

Special Purpose (Police) Measure

General Purpose Measure

2

3

A majority of Martinez voters think things are headed in the right direction. Would you say things in the City of Martinez are going in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?

DK/NA 26%

2008

2018

Right Direction 50%

Right Direction 59%

Wrong Track 24%

DK/NA 22%

Wrong Track 19%

Q1.

4

Voters offer strong approval for the Police Department,Ccity government, and City Council. Strong Apprv.

Smwt. Apprv.

The Martinez Police Department

Martinez city government overall

Smwt. Disapprv.

48%

Strng. Disapprv.

35%

DK/NA

Total Total Apprv. Disapprv.

8% 8% 83%

9%

2018

16%

51%

16% 8% 10% 66%

24%

2008

16%

50%

14% 7% 13%

66%

21%

18% 11% 54%

34%

58%

23%

2018 12%

42%

17%

The Martinez City Council 2008 13%

45%

15% 9% 18%

Q2. I am going to read you a list of organizations. Please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the job being done by that organization. Is that strongly APPROVE/DISAPPROVE or just somewhat?

5

Voters feel generally positive about the quality of life in Martinez; few harbor negative opinions. How would you rate the overall quality of life in Martinez, either excellent, good, fair, or poor?

2015 18%

Excellent

21%

Excellent/ Good 78% 60%

Good

Fair

20% Fair/

Poor

Poor 26%

6%

2018

13% 1%

Excellent/ Good 85% 65%

Fair/ Poor 15%

Q6. 2008 NCS Community Survey

6

Homelessness, roads, drug abuse, and the cost of housing are seen as the biggest issues facing the community. I’m going to read you a list of things some people say may be problems facing Martinez. Please tell me whether you think it is an extremely serious problem, a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem, or not a problem for Martinez residents. Ext. Ser. Prob.

Very Ser. Prob.

Smwt. Ser. Prob.

Homelessness

29%

33%

Potholes and street repair

31%

27%

Not A Prob.

DK/NA

29% 33%

Ext./Very Ser. Prob.

7%

62%

9%

58%

Drugs and alcohol abuse

23%

29%

31%

9% 8%

52%

The cost of housing

22%

31%

27%

19%

52%

Rising gas prices

16%

25%

Waste and inefficiency in City government Speeding and people driving too fast on local streets

20%

17%

17%

19%

School safety

17%

18%

The cost of benefits for public employees

17%

17%

32% 28%

19%

37% 26% 23%

41%

22% 17% 25% 29%

19%

10% 24%

37% 36% 35% 34%

Q8. Split Sample

7

A lack of parks and traffic are the least serious problems facing the City. I’m going to read you a list of things some people say may be problems facing Martinez. Please tell me whether you think it is an extremely serious problem, a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem, or not a problem for Martinez residents. Ext. Ser. Prob.

Very Ser. Prob.

The quality of public schools

Smwt. Ser. Prob.

13%

20%

Cuts in City services 12% Flooding on City streets caused by major winter storms 12%

21%

911 police emergency response times

13% 14%

Crime, in general 9%

Traffic congestion on local streets 8% 7%

23%

36% 18%

26% 34% 22%

31%

13%

34%

13%

33%

26% 33%

53%

The amount you pay in local taxes 10% 12% A lack of parks and open space 10% 7%

28%

32%

17%

Too much growth and development 11% 11%

Not A Prob.

25%

21%

Ext./Very DK/NA Ser. Prob.

6%

23%

26%

16%

26% 22%

48% 38% 60%

53%

32%

5%

22%

17% 15%

Q8. Split Sample

8

Majorities of voters are unfamiliar with the change to district elections for the City Council. Have you seen, read or heard about upcoming changes to the way Martinez voters elect their City Council representatives?

Yes, a lot

14%

Yes, a little

22%

From what you know, in the next election, will City Council members be elected atlarge, that is, by all voters citywide, or within districts that represent certain parts of the city?

Total Seen, Heard, or Read 36% At-large 16%

No, nothing Don't know/NA

60%

Districts 28%

DK/NA 56%

4%

Q12.

9

10

Three quarters of voters give Martinez a positive rating when it comes to safety. How would you rate the overall feeling of safety in Martinez, either excellent, good, fair, or poor?

2015 15%

Excellent

Good

25%

Fair Poor

6%

2018 16%

Excellent/ Good 69% 54%

Fair/ Poor 31%

21% 2%

Excellent/ Good 77% 61%

Fair/ Poor 23%

Q10. NCS Community Survey

11

Less than half of voters believe it is difficult for the City to recruit and retain police officers. It is difficult for the City of Martinez to recruit and retain experienced police officers 24%

Very accurate Somewhat accurate

21%

Somewhat inaccurate Very inaccurate

Don’t know/NA

16% 5%

Total Accurate 44%

Total Inaccurate 21%

35%

Q9 c. I would like to read you a series of statements that people have made about the City of Martinez. Please tell me if you believe it is accurate or inaccurate.

12

13

Nearly half say the City’s finances are well-managed, but a plurality is unsure about the status of the City budget. I would like to read you a series of statements that people have made about the City of Martinez. Please tell me if you believe it is accurate or inaccurate. Very Acc.

Smwt. Acc.

Don't Know

Very Inacc.

Total Total Acc. Inacc.

The City of Martinez's finances are generally well- 10% managed

The City of Martinez is on the brink of a budget shortfall 9%

Smwt. Inacc.

35%

16%

26%

45%

16%

13%

46%

28%

21%

9%

25%

30%

Q9 b & c.

14

Three in five voters see a need for additional funding for City services. In your personal opinion, do you think there is a great need, some need, a little need, or no real need for additional funds to provide the level of City services that Martinez residents need and want? Great need

18%

Some need

44%

A little need

15%

No real need

15%

Don't know/NA

A Little/ No Real Need 30%

Great/ Some Need 63%

Great/ Some Need

A Little/ No Real Need

Democrats

68%

25%

Independents

62%

28%

Republicans

51%

43%

Party

7%

Q7.

15

16

Hypothetical Ballot Language Tested CITY OF MARTINEZ QUALITY OF LIFE AND ESSENTIAL SERVICES MEASURE. To: • Maintain 911 police emergency response times; • Retain and recruit experienced police officers; • Address homelessness and school safety; • Protect open space and maintain parks; • Maintain stormdrains and prevent flooding; and • Provide youth, senior, other essential City services, Shall an ordinance be adopted establishing a City of Martinez ½¢ sales tax for 15 years, providing $3.2 million annually for general unrestricted purposes, with citizens’ oversight, annual audits, all funds spent locally? Q3. If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it, or no to oppose this measure?

17

Three in five voters offered support for a proposed general-purpose sales tax. Majority Vote Threshold Under Current Law

Definitely yes

31%

Probably yes

24%

Undecided, lean yes Undecided, lean no

5% 2%

Probably no

9%

Definitely no Undecided

Total Yes 60%

Total No 24% 35%

5%

Q3 (Total). If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it, or no to oppose this measure?

18

Voters under age 40 offer very strong support for the measure; Republicans more divided. General Purpose Sales Tax Demographic Groups Gender Men Women Age 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65-74 75+ Party Democrats Independents Republicans

Total Yes

Total No

Undecided

53% 67%

43% 27%

4% 6%

77% 84% 62% 51% 59% 50%

17% 16% 33% 42% 38% 40%

5% 0% 5% 7% 3% 10%

66% 60% 47%

29% 35% 49%

5% 6% 4%

Q3 (Total). If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it, or no to oppose this measure?

19

Voters of color and renters are especially supportive of the proposed measure. General Purpose Sales Tax Demographic Groups

Total Yes

Total No

Undecided

Latinos

83%

8%

9%

Whites

59%

37%

5%

All Voters of Color

80%

13%

7%

Homeowners

57%

38%

5%

Renters

74%

20%

6%

Ethnicity

Residence

Q3 (Total). If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it, or no to oppose this measure?

20

Support levels tend to correlate with income, but not education. General Purpose Sales Tax Demographic Groups

Total Yes

Total No

Undecided